Fire SuitedTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condemned Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sleight of Hand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Cinder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Manastreak | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lacuna's Grasp | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |